ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Roslyn is weakening this evening. Strong southwesterly shear of nearly 30 kt is affecting the tropical storm, and this has caused the associated deep convection to be well removed to the north-northeast of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 35 kt, based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The shear is expected to persist, or even increase a little, during the next few days. These hostile winds combined with a stable atmosphere and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause additional weakening. Roslyn will likely weaken to a depression overnight or on Wednesday and become a remnant low shortly thereafter when it moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and generally follows the global model guidance. The initial motion estimate is 040/8 kt. Roslyn should turn northward soon as it rotates around a large cut off mid- to upper-level low near the northern Baja California peninsula. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn northwestward in the low-level flow before it dissipates in 2 to 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, and lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.5N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 21.8N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.6N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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