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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...PAINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN QUICKLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 117.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 117.0 West.  Paine is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northeast and
a decrease in forward speed are forecast tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Paine will approach the northwestern coast of
the Baja California peninsula tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Paine is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, become a
remnant low early Wednesday, and dissipate by early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated
storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rain into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly in areas of favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Wind gusts to near tropical storm force are possible along
portions of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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