ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Paine consists of a well-defined circulation of low-level clouds, as all of the deep convection dissipated around 10-11Z. The initial intensity has been set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Since it is unlikely that deep convection will return given the continued strong shear and a track over very cool waters, Paine will likely be declared a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The remnant low will slowly spin down during the next day or so and should dissipate over the Baja California peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 005/13. Paine's track should gradually bend northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States, and the shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed during that time. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and is again close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 27.2N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 28.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z 29.7N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 30.9N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:45 UTC