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TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine continues to rapidly lose organization, with a disorganized
area of diminishing deep convection displaced well to the north and
northeast of the estimated low-level center.  The current intensity
is set at 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone will continue to move through a very
hostile environment of strong southwesterly shear and SSTs below 22
deg C.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Paine should be
reduced to a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the
north-central Baja California peninsula.  Since there is now only a
slight possibility of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the
peninsula, the government of Mexico has downgraded the tropical
storm warning to a watch.

Based on microwave fixes, which showed the low-level center to be
located on the south-southwestern edge of the main cloud mass, the
initial motion estimate is 360/11.  Paine or its remnant should
continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone, and ahead of a shortwave trough to its northwest, until
dissipation in a few days.  The official track forecast is mainly a
blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 24.8N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 28.4N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 29.6N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 30.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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