ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 An AMSR2 image from 0859 UTC revealed that the low-level center of Paine was displaced somewhat to the east of the earlier estimated track, indicative of easterly shear over the system. Paine has a fairly well-defined curved band, with very cold cloud tops, over the western semicircle of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory intensity. The dynamical guidance shows a decrease in shear over the next 24 hours, so Paine is likely to strengthen into Monday. In around 48 hours, SSTs are expected to drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause significant weakening, and remnant low status seems likely by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and near or above the model consensus. Based on the aforementioned microwave image, the track has been shifted eastward somewhat, and the initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt. Over the next couple of days, Paine should move around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over Texas. The official forecast track is to the right of the previous one, mainly due to the eastward relocation of the center, but lies generally to the left of the model consensus. Although the cyclone is likely to dissipate before reaching land, deep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be advected into extreme southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, which could enhance the potential for unusual September rains across these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.5N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.7N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 22.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.9N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 28.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:44 UTC