ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016 The convection associated with Orlene has now dissipated, and the cyclone is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Unless the the convection returns, which seems unlikely given the very dry air entraining into the cyclone, Orlene is now expected to weaken to a depression in 12 hours or less and to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours or less. The initial motion is 270/9. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a weakness in the ridge. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 19.9N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 19.9N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 19.9N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 21.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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