ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Orlene has become less organized during the past several hours. The eye has disappeared in infrared satellite imagery, and a recent microwave overpass suggests that the cyclone is now tilted toward the north-northeast. Based on an average of satellite intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus, the initial intensity is reduced to 85 kt, and this could be a little generous. The initial motion is 015/4. Orlene is currently moving into a break in the subtropical ridge caused a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent waters. The dynamical models forecast the trough to move eastward during the next 24-48 hours, with the ridge rebuilding to the north of the tropical cyclone. This evolution should produce a slow motion for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed during most of the balance of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario through 96 hours, with some divergence at 120 hours on whether Orlene will turn more northward or continue westward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the cluster of consensus and dynamical models. Orlene is experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and this is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so. After that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease while the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm. These conditions, combined with abundant dry air seen west of the cyclone in microwave imagery, should lead to gradual weakening through the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.8N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 20.2N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.3N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.4N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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