ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

The cloud pattern of Newton has continued to decay since the last
advisory, with a continued warming of the cloud tops near the
center.  There has been no data close enough to the center to help
determine the intensity, so based on a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB and the observed decay the intensity is reduced to a
possibly generous 65 kt.

The initial motion is 345/16.  Newton is being steered around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the lower Mississippi
Valley of the United States.  It should turn northward later
tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.  The
northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland.
The new forecast track is again similar to, but slightly faster
than, the previous track and lies near the multi-model consensus.

Little change in strength is expected as the center of Newton
crosses portions of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California
during the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to be a
hurricane at landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico. Weakening
is expected after landfall, and the circulation of Newton is
expected to dissipate over Arizona and New Mexico between 36-48
hours.  The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one,
and it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona
before weakening below tropical-storm strength.

Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend
well away from the center.  These hazards will affect a large
portion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and
southeastern Arizona during the next day or so.  Moisture associated
with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and
localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 25.8N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  07/0600Z 28.2N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  07/1800Z 31.5N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  08/0600Z 34.2N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN