ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 200 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016 The convective structure of Kay has continued to degenerate during the day, with the deep convection now confined to the northwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is decreased to 35 kt based mainly on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern. The initial motion is now 275/7. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward until dissipation. The new track guidance envelope has shifted a little northward, and the new forecast track lies a little to the south of the consensus models. Kay should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours or less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36 hours. The forecast also follows the global models in showing the system weakening to a trough by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 22.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 22.1N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 22.5N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 22.8N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 22.9N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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