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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Kay's cloud pattern has shown little change in organization since
earlier today.  The storm continues to produce very cold-topped
deep convection over a small area near the center.  The upper-level
outflow remains fairly symmetric, which is consistent with the
low-shear environment.  The current intensity estimate is kept at
45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Kay is
currently over marginally warm SSTs, but should be moving over
progressively cooler waters during the next day or two.  This,
along with an increasingly less humid mid-level air mass, should
cause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is very close
to the latest intensity guidance consensus, IVCN.

The storm continues to move west-northwestward, or around 300/6 kt.
There are no significant changes to the track forecast or forecast
reasoning.  Kay should continue to move along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so.  By Tuesday,
when the system should become a shallow cyclone, a turn toward the
west following the low-level flow is anticipated.  The official
track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 21.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 22.1N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.4N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 22.7N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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