ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 900 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Kay is holding its own. A new burst of very cold-topped convection has developed since the last advisory, coinciding with the diurnal convective maximum. An earlier microwave pass suggested some tilt between the low- and mid-level centers, indicative that southeasterly shear diagnosed over the storm could be slightly stronger than indicated in analyses. Satellite classifications are T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and ADT values are around T3.0. A blend of these data is used to set the initial intensity estimate to 40 kt. Kay is living on borrowed time. Within 24 hours, the cyclone should cross the 26-deg C isotherm and encounter a drier and more stable air mass. Weakening should have begun by then if not before, and a rapid decay is expected in 24 to 48 hours when Kay moves roughly perpendicular to a steep gradient of lower SSTs and is affected by increasingly unfavorable thermodynamics conditions. Remnant low status is indicated in 48 hours, and the system should dissipate just after 72 hours per the global models. The new NHC intensity forecast maintains the cyclone's current intensity for the next 12 hours, but overall is similar to the previous one and the bulk of the intensity guidance after that time. Kay is moving west-northwestward to northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 305/06. For the next day or so, this general motion should continue while the cyclone is steered by the weak flow around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After the cyclone weakens, the shallow system should turn westward with some increase in forward speed due to a building low-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 21.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 22.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 23.6N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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