ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Kay has weakened some overnight. The areal coverage of deep convection has shrunk a little since the previous advisory, but the cyclone is maintaining an area of very cold cloud tops near the center of the storm. A pair of recent ASCAT passes show maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range, and accordingly, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. This estimate is near the low end of the Dvorak classifications. Although Kay is expected to remain in a low wind shear environment during the next several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a progressively drier air mass along the path of the system should cause a slow weakening trend beginning Monday. Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it moves over SSTs below 25 deg C, and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Kay. Once Kay becomes a remnant low, it should turn westward in the easterly trade wind flow. Although the models agree on the overall theme, there are significant differences in the projected forward motion of Kay. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies near a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models. The 34-kt wind radii were modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.9N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 21.3N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 22.7N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 23.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 23.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:33 UTC