ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Convection associated with Kay has decreased in organization during
the past several hours, with the main concentration remaining just
south of the low-level center.  This decrease might be due to an
area of stratus clouds, indicative of stable air, entraining into
the western portion of the circulation.  Although the convection
has diminished, the various satellite intensity estimates have
changed little since the last advisory, and the initial intensity
remains 45 kt.

Kay has turned northwestward with the estimated motion now 320/5.
The track guidance is in excellent agreement that a mid-level ridge
to the north of Kay should steer the cyclone toward the northwest
and west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours.  After that time, a
more westward motion is likely as Kay becomes a shallow low pressure
area that is steered by the low-level easterlies.  The consensus
models have shifted a little southward since the previous forecast.
Based on this, the new forecast track is also shifted a little
southward and lies between the consensus models and the previous
NHC track.

On the forecast track, Kay will be moving over decreasing sea
surface temperatures and reaching the 26C isotherm in about 48
hours.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement on forecasting
gradual weakening through the forecast period, with several of the
global models showing Kay degenerating into a trough at around 120
hours.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and calls for a slow weakening, with Fay becoming a depression in
about 72 hours and a remnant low in about 96 hours.  Overall, the
NHC prediction is in best agreement with the intensity consensus
IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 20.8N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 21.3N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 21.8N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 23.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 23.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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