ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 900 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Kay has been able to maintain a large CDO pattern, and the low-level circulation has moved farther into the northeastern portion of the convective cloud shield. The upper-level outflow has also been increasing, except in the northeastern quadrant where it is restricted by modest northeasterly vertical wind shear. Satellite classifications are a consensus T3.0 from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values have been steadily increasing and are now T3.6/57 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. Microwave satellite data indicate that Kay is moving northwestward or 305/6 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast reasoning. A weak subtropical ridge currently located over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula is forecast to build westward to the north of Kay during the next 5 days, which will gradually turn the storm toward the west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that, a westward motion is expected on days 4 and 5 when Kay will be a shallow remnant low steered by weak low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to but a little slower than the consensus model TVCN. The official intensity forecast shows no change in strength for the next 36 hours due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air that will cause fluctuations in the convective structure that can not be predicted temporally. With the 850-200-mb vertical wind shear expected to remain low at around 5 kt for the next 48 hours, it is not out of the question that some slight strengthening could occur. However, long-term or rapid intensification is not expected due to the Kay moving into a drier, more stable air mass and over progressively cooler SSTs. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous advisory, and remains a little above the IVCN consensus model and near an average of the SHIPS/LGEM intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.2N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.3N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 22.4N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 23.1N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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