ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 300 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 The center continues to be on the edge or very near a large area of developing convection. Dvorak T-number estimates remain below tropical storm strength, but a recent ASCAT-B pass around 0500 UTC showed a few wind vectors of 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. On this basis, the depression has been upgraded to tropical storm status. Kay continues to be affected by northeasterly shear, but conditions are still favorable for slight strengthening during the next 24 hours before the cyclone encounters a more stable environment. After that time, gradual weakening should begin. The best estimate of the initial motion is 315/06. Kay is embedded within light steering currents around a weak ridge over Mexico, and this pattern is forecast to change little. Most of the track models keep Kay moving northwestward with a gradual bend to the west as the cyclones weakens. The exception is the GFS which brings a very weak system close to Baja California. This GFS solution does not appear to be realistic at this time. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of the guidance, shifting a little bit to the left from the previous NHC forecast and following the multimodel consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 20.0N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.6N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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