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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some
small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja
California peninsula.  The cyclone is embedded within an air mass
that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time.
Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over
the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period.

The center has become less defined but is believed to be located
just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the
initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6.  Over the next
couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system.
The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model
consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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