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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening,
with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection
aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center.
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0
corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity.
Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the
next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while
Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula.  The official
intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the
intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction.
Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and
an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening.

Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that
the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues.  Javier is forecast
to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone centered over Texas.  The official forecast is slightly
to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the
track guidance suite.

Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane,
it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the
southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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