ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Rapid weakening is expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and heading for even cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM. Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by day 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the north. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow system. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:24 UTC