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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

Georgette's satellite presentation has begun to degrade.  The small
eye has become filled in infrared imagery and the coverage and
symmetry of cold tops in the CDO have decreased.  The initial
intensity of 105 kt is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Quick weakening is expected as
the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a
drier and more stable airmass during the forecast period.  Georgette
should become a remnant low in about 3 days over SSTs of less than
23C and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 4 to 5 days.
The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one but
is still a bit above the latest IVCN consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is 315/08.  Georgette is being pulled
northwestward by an upper-level low centered to its northwest, and
this motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so.  After that
time, a shallow Georgette should accelerate westward in the low-
level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit
to the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN
consensus aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 17.5N 127.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.0N 127.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.7N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.4N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 21.9N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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