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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past
few hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the
center of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature.  Based
on the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has
been set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates
from SAB and UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane has an opportunity to
strengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C
by 24 hours.  After that time, slow weakening should begin and
continue through the rest of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity
forecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM
thereafter.  In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post-
tropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable
environment.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest
geostationary and microwave fixes.  A mid-level anticyclone centered
north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours,
which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and
slow down.  By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical
Georgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the
low-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is a little to the
right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus
aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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