ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 ASCAT-B scatterometer data from 0448 UTC indicate that the depression's winds have not strengthened yet, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Some banding is trying to form, but most of the convection is displaced to the west of the center due to 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Although sea surface temperatures near the cyclone are very warm--around 29C--the shear is likely to continue for at least the next 24-36 hours. The shear should then decrease after 36 hours with SSTs remaining warm through day 3, giving the cyclone an opportunity to strengthen to hurricane intensity in a couple of days. After day 3, a cooler ocean and a drier air mass should lead to gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, showing a slightly slower intensification trend in the short term compared to the previous forecast. The official forecast is a little higher than SHIPS between 36 and 72 hours and then is closest to the LGEM model on days 4 and 5. The depression remains on track with an initial motion of 295/11 kt. Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central United States southwestward over the Pacific Ocean is expected to maintain the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading for the next 48 hours. The ridge is expected to shift westward between California and Hawaii on days 3 through 5, impeding the cyclone's forward motion and causing it to turn northwestward and slow down considerably. There's not much spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC track forecast has been placed very near the TVCE model consensus. This forecast is a little slower than the previous forecast at 36 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.4N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.7N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 15.8N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 128.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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