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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep
convection near and northwest of the center.  A blend of the
TAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt
for this advisory.  Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone
moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable
airmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest
model consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant
low by tomorrow afternoon.

Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank
should turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and
shallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge.  Models have
shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast
follows that trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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