ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 After a decrease in thunderstorm activity yesterday, deep convection associated with Frank has recently increased in a CDO-type pattern. The intensity of the storm is adjusted upward slightly to 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Little change in strength is expected in the short term since Frank will be over marginally warm SSTs and in a weak shear environment today. Within 12 to 24 hours, however, a weakening trend is likely to commence and the cyclone should become a tropical depression within a couple of days or sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Frank continues slowly west-northwestward or at about 285/6 kt. The track forecast seems straightforward. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is predicted by the global models to build slightly over the next few days. This should result in little change in heading but with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 21.1N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 21.4N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 22.1N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.8N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.4N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.3N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:21 UTC