ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Deep convection is bursting near the center of Frank, with its asymmetric pattern on infrared images suggesting that shear continues to play a significant role in the storm's structure. Intensity estimates have a rather wide spread this morning, from 35 to 60 kt. Since the storm overall looks a little better than overnight, the initial 55-kt wind speed is kept the same from earlier, although it could still be generous. Frank has about 24 hours left before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm, which will likely cause gradual weakening thereafter. The storm still has a chance of intensify during the first 24 h, but the official forecast reflects no significant change in intensity, partially due to uncertainty in the initial wind speed. Frank is likely to become a remnant low in about 3 days due to it moving over cool 23 deg C waters. The latest forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and remains close to a SHIPS/LGEM consensus. Microwave data show that Frank has started to move slowly westward, with an initial motion estimate of 280/5. All of the global models predict the subtropical ridge to strengthen over the next couple of days, which should steer the storm west-northwestward with some acceleration. Late in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low is likely to move mostly westward in the low-level flow. The model spread has notably decreased since yesterday, with only some minor speed differences. Thus, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, which lies close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 20.4N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 20.9N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 23.8N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 24.7N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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