ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Frank's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably in organization since the last advisory. The cloud pattern remains characterized by a ball of deep convection with some evidence of outer banding. An 0408 UTC Ascat-B overpass suggested winds of around 55 kt, at best. The initial intensity estimate is therefore held at this value. The initial motion estimate is 305/07. A weak mid- to upper-level perturbation near the Baja California peninsula could be responsible for Frank's more northwesterly motion today, which is forecast to persist for a little longer. Once this feature dissipates in a day or so, Frank should be steered west-northwestward or westward at a relatively slow forward speed to the south of a subtropical ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, though there are some speed differences between the various solutions. The NHC forecast track represents a blend of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and is slightly north of the previous forecast after 24 hours. The cyclone has already moved out of the warmest waters of the basin and is forecast to reach sub-26 deg C in about 60 hours. This would seem to still give Frank an opportunity to strengthen some, but northeasterly to easterly vertical shear over the storm is not forecast to abate. The NHC intensity forecast thus keeps Frank at the same strength for a day or so and then shows slow weakening. Further weakening should occur by day 3 when Frank reaches significantly cooler waters and becomes embedded in a drier and more stable air mass. The guidance suggests that Frank should become a remnant low in about 4 days, and so does the official forecast. The new forecast is close to a blend of the statistical-dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 19.9N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.2N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 21.0N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 21.1N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 21.9N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 22.9N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z 23.1N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:21 UTC