ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming better organized. There has been an increase in central convection near the estimated center location and in convective banding to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the cyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane Blas. After that time, the intensification rate should increase as the cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear environment. In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and SSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid IVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus through 48 hours. Beyond that time the official forecast is higher than the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the uncertainty in the exact center location. The cyclone should be steered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a west- northwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward this cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now well north of the rest of the models through 48 hours. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a little south of the multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the system is still organizing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:08 UTC