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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016

Blas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.
The hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite
images that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep
convection.  Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this
morning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained.
The hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves
over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Blas should
cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause
a faster rate of decay.  The cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day
5.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

The initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving
west-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.
After that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward
between the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to
upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The
spread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond,
however, the models have moved a little closer together with the
GFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged
northward.  As a result, little change has been made to the NHC
track prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX)
consensus aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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