ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Although the low-cloud circulation is well defined, the coverage of deep convection associated with Agatha has diminished today. The maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will be moving through an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, drier mid-level air, and cooling SSTs. These factors should cause weakening, and Agatha is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or sooner. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The cyclone's estimated motion, 285/12 kt, hasn't changed much from earlier today. The track forecast reasoning remains about the same as well. Agatha is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north but as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should move more westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and about in the middle of the dynamical track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.7N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.1N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 19.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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