ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016 A small burst of cold-topped convection has remained near the center of Agatha during the past 6 hours, and earlier microwave satellite data indicate that the compact cyclone had developed a small mid-level eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT 3.3/51 kt, and 48 kt from a recent AMSU estimate. A blend of these intensity values supports increasing the initial intensity to at least 40 kt. Agatha's initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt based on a 12-hour average motion. Latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on maintaining a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Agatha for the next several days. This stable steering pattern should keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward direction for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west after that. The official NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. Agatha has likely reached its peak intensity, so little change in strength is expected today. By tonight and especially on Monday, the cyclone will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt, and will also be moving over sea-surface temperatures less than 26C and into a significantly drier air mass. These negative factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low by 48-72 hours, and dissipate by day 4. This official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.0N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.7N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.4N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 18.9N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 19.4N 134.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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