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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Recent SSMIS microwave data indicate that Agatha has a nearly closed
ring of convection around a mid-level center, but the overall
coverage of cold cloud tops has decreased significantly since the
previous advisory.  A new burst of convection is, however,
developing near Agatha's center.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain T2.5, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.  There is
still a little room for some strengthening during the next 12 hours
or so while the vertical shear is low and sea surface temperatures
are around 26C.  The shear increases after 24 hours, and along with
colder waters and a drier atmosphere, these factors should cause
Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days and dissipate by
day 4.  This forecast is unchanged from the previous NHC official
intensity forecast.

Agatha appears to have accelerated a bit, with an initial motion of
295/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone
should maintain Agatha on a west-northwestward heading for the next
36 hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 48 hours.  The
track model envelope has shifted northward on this cycle, and the
updated NHC track forecast has also been pushed in that direction,
although not as far north as the GFS and not as far west as the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 16.6N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.4N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.1N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 19.3N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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