ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016 Despite the symmetric area of convection observed on conventional infrared imagery, several microwave passes indicate that the low-level center is still located to the southeast or near the edge of the thunderstorm activity due to southeasterly shear. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed very much, but support an initial intensity of 30 kt. There is an opportunity for the depression to slightly strengthen during the next day or so while the shear decreases. After that time, an environment of higher shear and cool SSTs should result in weakening, and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours or sooner. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt, steered by the flow around a nearly stationary subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue during the next 24 to 48 hours, and as the cyclone weakens, it should move to the west and even to the west-southwest steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it very close to the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.4N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.1N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:02 UTC