ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 01 2016 ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the low pressure area several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula had developed a well-defined circulation. Deep convection, although currently sheared to the west of the low-level center, has become more organized throughout the day, and TAFB and SAB have both given the system classifications of T1.5. Advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, with the 25-kt initial intensity based on the Dvorak estimates and ASCAT data. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain relatively stationary, with the cyclone forecast to continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days. There are some speed differences, however, with the ECMWF showing a slightly faster motion compared with the other track models. The NHC official forecast is a little faster than the consensus model trackers, which did not include the ECMWF solution on this forecast cycle. After 48 hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward by day 5. The depression only has a small window of opportunity to strengthen. Vertical shear is forecast to be low during the next 36 hours and then increase significantly in 2 to 3 days. In addition, the cyclone should move over water colder than 26 degrees Celsius and into a much drier mid-level environment in about 36 hours. Therefore, only modest strengthening to tropical storm strength is shown in the NHC official forecast in the first day or two, followed by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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