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HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
2100 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  45.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
50 KT.......130NE 150SE 180SW 130NW.
34 KT.......380NE 330SE 330SW 380NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 660SE 960SW 720NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  45.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  45.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.5N  44.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 180SW 130NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 360SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.6N  42.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 110NW.
34 KT...420NE 400SE 380SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 46.3N  39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...450NE 450SE 400SW 550NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.3N  37.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...480NE 510SE 430SW 650NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 59.6N  32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...360NE 400SE 420SW 600NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N  45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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