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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...CORE OF KARL FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn toward
the north is expected today, and a turn to the northeast is
anticipated by tonight or early Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda late
tonight or early Saturday.

Data from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Karl could become a hurricane on
Saturday as it moves away from Bermuda.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily to the north of the center.


The minimum central pressure estimated by reconnaissance aircraft
was 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and
are expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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