ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that the center of the depression is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. The plane did not find any stronger winds than in previous missions, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Westerly vertical shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to decrease, and in fact it should increase substantially from 24 hours and beyond. Still, if the system can maintain deep convection while it remains over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so, the mere fact that it is expected to accelerate from this point forward could allow the maximum winds to increase. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, but it does allow for possible strengthening to tropical storm strength in about 12 hours. The cyclone should become extratropical by 72 hours, but after that there is some uncertainty whether it will be absorbed by another cyclone or become the dominant system. For now, the forecast continues to show it becoming absorbed, which is in line with the ECMWF. The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is beginning to move away from the Outer Banks with an initial motion of 040/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast through the forecast period. The track models are in very good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 34.5N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 35.4N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 37.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 39.3N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 41.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 45.1N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:09:23 UTC