ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

...EARL MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Roca Partido.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 95.9 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the
forecast track, Earl will move inland between Veracruz and
Alvarado in the Mexican state of Veracruz within the next hour.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin after Earl's center
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly northwest and northeast of the center.  A sustained wind of
41 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently
reported in Veracruz, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward
across the warning area tonight and early Saturday morning.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions
of the Mexican states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Puebla, Tabasco, and Campeche through Saturday night. These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN