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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this
afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a
peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional
aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also
indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward
considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a
northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the
east coast of Mexico.

Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is
forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so.
After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is
expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the
Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant
change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is
close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model.

Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs
later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours
had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due
to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still
be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could
cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather Service (SMN)
has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7
inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 18.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 18.8N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/1800Z 18.8N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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