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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Somewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity
this evening.  Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind
gust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.  Since the forecast track takes the
center along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the
next 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain
its strength on Friday.  Based on the new official intensity
forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern
Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.  In 36 hours or so, the center of
Earl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the
system is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours.

Earl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and
the initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt.  A large mid-level
ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a
continued west-northwestward to westward motion through the
forecast period.  The official track forecast is close to the most
recent multi-model consensus.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 18.1N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.4N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/0000Z 18.7N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/1200Z 18.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0000Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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