ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective structure of Alex has decayed during the past 6 hours, with the eyewall breaking open and the banding dissipating in the southeastern semicircle. Based on this, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt. The hurricane is moving over colder sea surface temperatures of less than 20C. However, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition in the next few hours, and the global models suggest there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds through and after the transition despite the cold water. Based on this and input from the Ocean Prediction Center, the new intensity forecast shows little change in strength until Alex is absorbed by a large extratropical low in about 72 hours. The initial motion is 010/19. There are no changes to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory and only minor tweaks to the forecast track. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that is rotating around the developing large baroclinic low to its west and northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models remain in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the model consensus. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it undergoes extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 34.7N 27.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.4N 27.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 45.0N 29.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1200Z 52.7N 32.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 59.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:09:05 UTC