ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015 200 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 Sandra was decapitated by very strong upper-level winds, and now consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. A perfect ASCAT pass over the cyclone at 0454 UTC indicates that the winds have decreased to 35 kt, and this is the value assigned to the initial intensity. Since the shear is anticipated to increase further, additional weakening is forecast. Sandra is expected to become a remnant low late Saturday or early Sunday before it moves near the coast of Mexico. The shallow swirl has been moving little during the past several hours. However, it should begin to move toward the north and north-northeast embedded within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. Given that Sandra is forecast to weaken, the Government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warnings. However, heavy rains are still expected over a large part of west-central Mexico. Furthermore, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event over portions of the south-central United States. For more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 22.6N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 26.5N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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