ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015 800 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 Sandra has sheared apart since the last advisory, with the low level center now exposed well to the west of the remaining convection by 40 kt of shear. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The shear should increase during the next 24-36 hours, which should keep Sandra on a rapid weakening trend. The cyclone is likely to weaken to a tropical depression, if not a remnant low, before the center moves into northwestern Mexico in 24 hours or so. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast, which is an update of the previous forecast. The low-level center has been moving west of due north for the past several hours, with a longer-term initial motion of 005/9. A low-level ridge over Mexico should steer Sandra or its remnants generally northward for 24 to 36 hours into northwestern Mexico. The track guidance has again shifted to the west, and the new forecast track lies to the west of the previous track based on this and the initial location and motion. However, the new forecast lies to the east of the model consensus. Tropical storm warning remain in effect for the Las Islas Marias and portions of the coast of mainland Mexico due to the possibility that the tropical storm force winds could reach the coast before Sandra weakens to a depression. Regardless of how Sandra evolves during the next couple of days, heavy rains are expected over a large part of west central Mexico. In addition, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event that has begun over portions of the south-central United States. For more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 21.2N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 22.6N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 24.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.9N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:10:00 UTC