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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

The center of Rick is now exposed to the northwest of the remaining
deep convection, and banding features have weakened during the past
few hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass from 1650Z showed a few 30-35 kt
wind vectors to the east of the center. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB
and SAB, and this could be a little generous. Dry mid-level air
continues to prevent Rick from intensifying, and much of the
intensity guidance shows little change in strength during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase
and Rick will begin moving over cooler SSTs, which should result in
remnant low status in 2 to 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is
close to the latest intensity consensus.

Rick has moved to the left of the previous forecast, and the initial
motion estimate is a more confident 285/10 since the center is now
exposed. With the more westerly initial position and motion and a
weaker trend in the guidance, the track models have shown a large
westward shift this cycle. Rick should continue moving generally
west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward
the northwest in 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens. The
remnant of Rick is then forecast to move slowly northward or meander
before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is about a
degree to the left of the previous one, and is close to a blend of
the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 16.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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