ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 Olaf has become less organized over the past several hours. The associated convection has decreased and has been displaced northeast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear. In addition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value. A combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new convection does not form near the center. The new forecast is an update of the previous CPHC forecast. The initial motion is 060/16. Olaf is currently being steered by a strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge building in its wake to the north of Olaf. As Olaf weakens and becomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant steering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and eventually southwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:55 UTC