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HURRICANE MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.3N 101.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 105.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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