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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS...MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 102.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 102.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.0N 102.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.2N 101.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 101.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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