ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The convective organization has continued to deteriorate, but it hasn't quite reached the point for the system to be declared a remnant low pressure system. However, the current ragged appearance of the shallow convection coupled with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt should cause the depression to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 6 to 12 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the latest SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance. Marty still possesses a fairly tight low-level circulation as noted in the last few visible satellite images and a 2132 UTC SSMI microwave image, which has made the system fairly easy to locate. As a result, the initial motion is now 285/07 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northwestern and central Mexico is expected to force Marty on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days until the shallow cyclone dissipates by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous track and lies close to the consensus model TCVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.6N 103.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.7N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0000Z 17.0N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 17.2N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 17.5N 109.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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