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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
400 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

An ASCAT pass several hours ago still indicated a few vectors with
tropical storm force winds, but since that time, the cloud
pattern has rapidly degenerated into a swirl of low clouds. Most of
the associated convection has moved to the northeast over Mexico.
On this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.
Strong shear is forecast to continue over the cyclone, and the
intensity guidance calls for weakening and so does the NHC forecast.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low later today or
early Thursday, but could still produce intermittent bursts of
convection.

The swirl of low clouds associated with the center has been moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at about 4 kt. Most of the models
forecast a low or a trough moving westward away from the coast of
Mexico. This is the option indicated in the NHC forecast since the
cyclone has become a shallow system and will be steered westward by
the low-level flow for the next few days.

Since the cyclone has weakened and is moving away from the coast,
the government of Mexico has discontinued the watches and warnings.
However, very heavy rainfall associated with this system will
continue to affect portions of the state of Guerrero.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 16.1N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 16.2N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 16.2N 103.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 16.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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