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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015

The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little
before 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja
California peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A
pair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow
swath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California
well to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were
likely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be
associated with the depression.

The cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection,
but this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the
circulation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind
shear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the
system have separated, and since even stronger shear and land
interaction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is
forecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or
dissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over
the southwestern United States.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in
the flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a
cut off low well to the west of Baja California.  This general
motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates.  The NHC track
forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

The main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall
over portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico.
Portions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next
day or two.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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