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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with
the eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops
have warmed.  The latest microwave imagery also shows that the
northeastern portion of the eye has eroded.  The initial wind speed
has been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Linda will be moving
over SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass
today. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast
to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant
low in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
SHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus.

Linda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected
to continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward
speed over the next couple of days.  After that time, the more
shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then
westward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula.  The
official track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger
Linda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda
more westward.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central
portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.
These swells are expected to spread northward into southern
California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and
upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions
of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could
trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please
consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and
your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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