ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Kevin is weakening. Its circulation center is on the southern edge of large circular mass of deep convection that the cyclone has maintained since overnight. A sequence of microwave images shows a gradual dislocation of low- to mid-level centers, evidence that south-southwesterly shear is taking its toll. Dvorak intensity estimates are gradually decreasing, and a blend of these data is used to lower the intensity to 45 kt. Quick weakening is likely to continue. A mid- to upper-level trough impinging on Kevin from the west should produce even stronger shear soon, and global models depict a decoupling of the cyclone in 12 hours or less. Much drier mid- to upper-tropospheric air associated with the trough should also reach Kevin's circulation and result in a collapse of deep convection during the next day or so. The new intensity forecast calls for a rapid decline, with remnant low status by 36 hours and dissipation by 3 days. Kevin has been moving due northward, and the initial motion estimate is 360/07. This general motion is expected until the cyclone fully decouples on Saturday. After that time, the shallower cyclone should gain a greater westerly component of motion as it meets the opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is adjusted to the right again due to a delay in the north-northwestward motion forecast in previous model runs to have begun by now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.0N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:49 UTC